DETERMINANTS OF RICE FARMERS’ PRODUCTION AND INCOME IN SUBAK JAKA, KUKUH VILLAGE, MARGA DISTRICT, TABANAN REGENCY

Abstract

Rising rice production in Bali Province has not been fully matched by improved farmer welfare, as reflected in the Farmers' Terms of Trade (Nilai Tukar Petani/NTP) for the food-crop subsector, which fell below 100 in 2021 and 2022. This condition is compounded by farmers' practice of selling unhulled rice directly to buyers/collectors (pembeli/pengepul) rather than through village-owned enterprises (BUMDes), leaving the selling price highly dependent on market mechanisms and the farmers' weak bargaining position. This study aims to analyze the influence of social capital, agricultural technology, land area, and farming experience on rice production and farmer income, and to examine the mediating role of rice production, among farmers of Subak Jaka, Kukuh Village, Marga District, Tabanan Regency. A sample of 73 respondents was drawn from a population of 276 farmers using proportionate stratified random sampling across five tempek groups, and data were analyzed using Partial Least Squares–Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) with SmartPLS 4.0. Results show that social capital, agricultural technology, land area, and farming experience each significantly and positively affect rice production. For income, social capital and agricultural technology remain significant, while land area and farming experience do not. Rice production acts as a partial mediator for social capital and technology, and a full mediator for land area and farming experience, indicating that strengthening subak institutions, technology adoption, and marketing systems should be prioritized to improve farmer welfare.